Thanks again for all the data...

Just a little warning about chasing bases:

There is now a considerable (and hidden) time delay built in to what drives this graph. Bid effective dates are practically 4 months out. [The award that came out at the beginning of October is effective Feb. 1, 2019!]

This means that anyone senior assigned an upgrade to ORF, for example, would be there before that date. Upgrade does not require 4 months. So by the time a junior captain is actually changed to ORF, they could have a bunch of other senior-assigned captains ahead of them. And just 5 additional pilots in a base with only 20-something lines is a big difference!

Additionally, other senior pilots (for example, with more than 2 years here) could have bid for ORF already with bid effective dates of Nov 1, Dec 1, or Jan 1. This would obviously drive up the R1 award time considerably as well.

Both factors combined make R1 seniority predictions all the more difficult when choosing a base...