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Old 10-20-2018 | 07:48 AM
  #733  
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CLazarus
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Joined: Feb 2015
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From: NOYB
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Originally Posted by CLazarus
I had a glance at Boeing's order site today and noticed a total of 129 737MAX aircraft still on order (after six deliveries so far). Last I remember, we had 161 total MAXes on order. So, BA seems to think we have 26 less MAX aircraft on order than what we've publicly stated. Anyone know why there is a discrepancy?
BA's website still shows our MAX order at 135 total aircraft instead 161. I'm pretty comfortable concluding that we very likely traded 26 MAXes for 9 or 13 787s (I think Sunvox once pointed out provisions in our SEC filings that allowed us to trade MAX orders for other aircraft). I know no one pays list price, but the list price for 26 737s is pretty close to the list price of 13 787s. That said, I think the reason we announced 4 787 orders in July and then separately 9 in Sep is that perhaps BA resisted all the trade ins and so we had to purchase some outright. I wonder if our announced CAPEX has changed at all, that would be a way to confirm a trade.

Anyways, I wouldn't fret about the modest decline in our NB orderbook for a couple of reasons. First, we don't need all those aircraft in short order as we keep older aircraft viable for longer (I'm starting to think 30 is the new 25). 10-20 new NB aircraft a year would cover NB growth I'd think. Second, it is not going to be all that tough to acquire new or used NB aircraft. BA and Airbus are producing over 100 NBs a month and meanwhile there are a lot of airlines out there on shaky legs that may have newer used NBs available soon at fire sale prices. Not a big need for a NSNB anytime soon really.

And yes, I'm still wondering about what is going to happen with our 350 order and the NMA vs. the 321LR.
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