I had one cup of coffee too many this morning and did some back of the napkin math for the 777 FO seat.
Bid 18-01 showed 124 vacancies in the 777 FO Seat. 63 777FO's bid to other categories. That means with backfill they had to fill 187 seats to staff the right seat of the 777 to the posted level of 624 pilots.
Now stay with me. 132 pilots were awarded positions TO the 777 FO seat. That means the company could put 55 new hires into the right seat of the 777. Looking at the current list they have put 51 new hires into the 777 FO position this year. That means they have 4 seats left for new hires and then they'll have to start winding down the list of pilots who have been denied slots.
That should also indicate a new bid is probably around the first of the year. I am thinking no bid this fall.
I only looked at the 777 right seat but I'm guessing most other categories are in a similar position. Simply put we are within a few months of completing the "training letter" even though we don't really do training letters like we used to.
Here is the other wrench; I am guessing some of those on SDP or who have simply not bid for a training date by choice may have buyers remorse. I would guess like a previous poster said that when they get the retirement notices and create a plan they will work up the bid. That way if anyone who is awaiting training bids a different position and holds it they won't have to be trained twice.
I get some of this is common sense but it certainly sounds close especially when the SIG just said expect a bid in early 19. It is also important because we need to make sure we know the numbers of seats that the company can offer to new hires and ensure that they don't exceed those numbers without first offering a bid to those of us on property.
-UA