Originally Posted by
AANG
We're losing CAs at a rate of about 75/yr. If you assume that upgrade seniority settles in at a seniority number between 450-500, you're looking at 3.5 to 4 years for an upgrade, once the dust settles.
If we don't continue to grow, the days of the 1000-hour-upgrade are gone. Not just gone for 2019 hires, gone for many 2018 hires as well.
It we stay this size and attrition stays similar to what it is now, we will have DECs holding CA spots that their seniority alone couldn't hold. They're going to be the bottom of their bidding group for much longer than the 18 months or so it currently takes to start improving in bid seniority.
This also means that there will be FOs that are more senior to those DECs that are unable to upgrade despite having met the CA requirements, a 'bypass' situation.
I’m not arguing that you’re wrong. I will say I think this event is a few years away though.
We have 400 line qualified people, roughly 200 in each camp. We lose 75 per year in the captain camp. So, over the next two years we need an addition 100 line qualified captains to be staffed + 75 for the loss from flow. Not counting attrition, I believe the “captain shortage” will persist for another year or so while they get settled in to the 60 jet situation.
Honestly, I’m praying we open a DCA base and get those 15 TSA birds. That’s the only way we’re ever going to get staffed enough to break the 850 mark for flow 7.