Hopefully...

But for the sake of discussion, let's remove the emotion and crystal ball. On one hand, G4 has a good business plan with a strong balance sheet and its reasonable to assume it will likely continue to profit so long as the economy cooperates. That said, competition being the living room couch, if discretionary spending dries up due to cyclical economic contractions we can no longer just park the cheap MD-80s and time will tell how the 'new and improved' airline weathers the inevitable next storm. The economy has been on a tear for 10 years and it's possible, some say probable, that we will see a dip--even a recession, sometime in the next couple years. The degree and timeline may be up for discussion but the possibility is not; it will happen eventually. Allegiant survived the 2008 crash due to a lean business model that included very little debt and low fix costs. Fast forward to today and G4 has modern equipment, mature labor contracts, less flexibility and a LOT more overhead. Not exactly the nimble days of old.

While diversification mitigates risk, debt investment creates exposure. A $1B resort, originally announced as condos to be financed up front by owner-occupants at $600K - $1.1M a piece, mysteriously became a hotel resort, yet to be paid for. That's a lot of overhead if rooms go unfilled and, when added to other unrelated ventures such as G4CE, it causes investor angst and the market cap hovers around half of it's august 2015 peak while SAVE, LUV, UAL, DAL stock have seen increases of 30%-40% during the same period.

No one gave Allegiant much hope when it started so who knows. Everyone hopes the (former hotel exec) CEO sees what industry analysts don't and is able to avoid the pitfalls of diversification other airlines have suffered in the past. In the meantime, I wouldn't go tossing my entire 401k into ALGT stock.

2 cents from a genus pallet financical anal-ist