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Old 12-02-2018 | 05:14 PM
  #49  
tyler durden
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Originally Posted by KC135
The budget is $420m not a billion. To put that in perspective there is currently more cash on hand than the total budget, although financing will most likely be used. High utilization is not a requirement since CASM is still low and most airbus acquisition cost were a small fraction of the $100 million dollar new price. Enough can be parked while still turning a profit should the economy call for it. Also, the 2015 peak price was after an 85% run up exactly 1 year before, would be fair to mention that.
Agreed, the current budget is $420M (not trying to be unfair). The $1B mentioned was the cost figure mentioned during the original unveiling of what was to be a condominium resort financed upfront by prospective owners. Whatever the cost, that plan later changed to a hotel resort, presumably due to a lack of investment interest. The reported figures since then have varied between $650M, then $600, now $420M. Budgets are merely estimates and it's anyone's guess what the final tab will be, especially given the circumstances surrounding the construction. The key difference being that paid-for condos carry far less financial liability than a hotel resort that must maintain occupancy rates to pay for itself.

The reason they're not paying for it out of cash is due to the relatively cheap cost of borrowing, but more importantly the industry's harsh penalties of not ensuring ample cash on hand. If Allegiant were forced to pay the cost in cash, it would find its balance sheet in a very precarious position.

Not looking for a pi$$ing contest or claiming the sky is falling, but having many uniforms in my closet, I'm not deluding myself that it's all rainbows and ice cream either. CASM can change quickly (when oil hit $238/BBL a leaner G4 barely eaked out a profit) and in a recession, leisure travel is discretionary. As with any business plan, there's always risk involved and time will tell. I'm not the only one concerned, but unlike this analyst, I actually care about the outcome.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/budget-airline-diversifying-just-losing-165000398.html

Last edited by tyler durden; 12-02-2018 at 05:38 PM.
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