Originally Posted by
TED74
Here's the calculation I'd like to know... for every penny drop in the price of fuel, how much does my profit sharing check go up?
Pilots console themselves with profit sharing..."yeah, our JVs are flying WB flying I wish we had on our metal, but at least I capture some of that revenue via profit sharing." Does anyone know how MUCH profit sharing is actually attributable to such a thing? If any given concession/productivity give/job loss can be priced by negotiators at the table, we (DALPA) should also be able to estimate the amount of profit sharing such gives would be traded for.
My hunch is that we get a pretty small slice of the pie for significant QOL gives. Would you delay an upgrade by 3 months for $39 more profit sharing? Would you cave to a bad AM JV deal for an extra $146?
Total contract value doesn't mean much, even though it's a large number folks like to tout for various reasons. I think it would be more helpful to hear "for every $100k earned per year, pilots will reap $XYZ individually, per year, on average."
The formula for profit sharing is in the contract. Your question is basically impossible to answer because there are no absolutes. Fuel went up on a yearly rate about 2 billion dollars a year in 2018. We were able to raise fares and recoup 1 billion of that amount. Fuel is dropping back and that 2 billion cost is going away. What happens to airfares is a unknown however the trend now looks like it may be down as competitors launch sales. Non fuel costs will be up next year which will eat into the fuel bonus.
Analysts get big bucks to predict earnings and rarely get it right. Pilots don’t have a chance.
What most overlook is the new breed of low cost long haul carrier was dying at 80 dollars a barrel oil. They were going under and most would have been gone next winter. They just got a stay of execution and will continue to suppress international fares. It also gives all the domestic ULCC’s a much bigger boost than Delta. Fuel is a much bigger percentage of their overall expenses. They can now grow even faster suppressing our yields down the road.
The point is that as Delta pilots we were probably better off long term with oil in the eighties range. Our business plan was built to sustain profits at that rate.