Originally Posted by
sailingfun
The formula for profit sharing is in the contract. Your question is basically impossible to answer because there are no absolutes. Fuel went up on a yearly rate about 2 billion dollars a year in 2018. We were able to raise fares and recoup 1 billion of that amount. Fuel is dropping back and that 2 billion cost is going away. What happens to airfares is a unknown however the trend now looks like it may be down as competitors launch sales. Non fuel costs will be up next year which will eat into the fuel bonus.
Analysts get big bucks to predict earnings and rarely get it right. Pilots don’t have a chance.
What most overlook is the new breed of low cost long haul carrier was dying at 80 dollars a barrel oil. They were going under and most would have been gone next winter. They just got a stay of execution and will continue to suppress international fares. It also gives all the domestic ULCC’s a much bigger boost than Delta. Fuel is a much bigger percentage of their overall expenses. They can now grow even faster suppressing our yields down the road.
The point is that as Delta pilots we were probably better off long term with oil in the eighties range. Our business plan was built to sustain profits at that rate.
Not sure you understood my point. I'm not asking for a perfect guess at the future. I'm saying let's get our arms around how expenditures/gains/losses/efficiencies/QOL gives & takes affect our profit sharing checks. I think most of our check's value is "baked in" to the operation, and despite its impressive size, we as pilots don't really affect it all that much. Elements of our contract, negotiations and LOAs could affect it measurably, and we should estimate how much.
My realtor doesn't need to tell me what the final sales price of a house I'm interested in will be (they can't). However, they can guesstimate that a house will sell for between $10k and $20k and I'll already know I'm not interested. Sell for between $1.5M and $1.8M... still not interested. Sell for between $400k and $600k... that's worth a closer look and better understanding of the offering.
If pilots assume variable X could generate them $3,000 a year in additional PS... but it's really only going to generate $30 (or vice versa), that would be worth knowing. It's not hard math, but it's not math we hear discussed by ALPA (and I'd like it to be).