Originally Posted by
TED74
Not sure you understood my point. I'm not asking for a perfect guess at the future. I'm saying let's get our arms around how expenditures/gains/losses/efficiencies/QOL gives & takes affect our profit sharing checks. I think most of our check's value is "baked in" to the operation, and despite its impressive size, we as pilots don't really affect it all that much. Elements of our contract, negotiations and LOAs could affect it measurably, and we should estimate how much.
My realtor doesn't need to tell me what the final sales price of a house I'm interested in will be (they can't). However, they can guesstimate that a house will sell for between $10k and $20k and I'll already know I'm not interested. Sell for between $1.5M and $1.8M... still not interested. Sell for between $400k and $600k... that's worth a closer look and better understanding of the offering.
If pilots assume variable X could generate them $3,000 a year in additional PS... but it's really only going to generate $30 (or vice versa), that would be worth knowing. It's not hard math, but it's not math we hear discussed by ALPA (and I'd like it to be).
Every 1 billion change in profits increases or decreases the P.S. pool for pilots by 200 million. Using 14,500 pilots that 1 billion change in profits equals about 13,793.00 if that pilots income is exactly at the median. If you are above or below you would need to adjust for that. If profits fall below 2.5 billion the above would no longer be accurate.