Originally Posted by
TransWorld
They do have to consider the cost of having an additional aircraft type. If AA were to purchase 75 A220 aircraft, the amount Delta is buying (with options for more), it would be the 4th largest fleet. B738, A321, and A319 would have more metal, all the rest fewer.
With all the Mad Dogs going away next fall, it wouldn’t mean more types of aircraft to maintain. Looking ahead, most of the A319 are Legacy America West and are 15 to 20 years old. Over the next decade they will get to that point where they should be replaced.
It appears new or ‘gently used’ A319 will be difficult to come by. Airbus has plenty of orders (and with international growth driving more orders) of A320 and A321 to keep their assembly full in Europe.
I think they will focus on selling the A220 to get their money’s worth on the purchase of them. So I can see the number of A220 suplant the A319 as that sweet spot between the regional 76 seaters and the B738 and A320/A321 larger aircraft.
YE 2019 numbers
A320 type - 419 (319 - 148; 320 - 48; 321 - 236)
B737 type - 344
A330 type - 24
75/76 type - 42
B777 type - 67
B787 type - 42
E190 type - 14 (going to 0)
Now breaking it down to narrow bodies:
A/C and seating:
MD80 16/124 (140) [for reference]
A319 8/120 (128)
A320 12/138 (150; -> could this be increased to similar seating as B737?)
B737 16/144 (160; -> 172 eventually)
A321 16/171 (187; will be adding a few coach on new NEOs)
It would seem to me the A320 could be eventually ruled redundant. Very similar capacity to our B737s. That leaves the 319 and 321, could they be replaced with additional product? The 321NEO is a fantastic aircraft that can also lead into the 321LR.
The 319 could definitely be replaced with a C series or E195-E2. You could also absorb the 320 fleet into additional B737 orders. But that still leaves the 321 which really has no replacement, especially the NEO.
I think maybe the best option is still to keep the 319/321 and gradually replace the 320's as they are retired with 737's.
As nice as the C series is, I just don't see how it fits into our fleet plans. We have no real need for its 4000 mile range, our transcons are generally run on the 321s. Delta is the exclusive mtc provider in the US. When paired up with the Embraer product on a sub 1000 mile range, the Embraer CASM is less.
So would we even need an E195? I just don't see it, unless they can't get any 319's at a good used price.
As far as widebodies go, I can see eventually picking up 787s used as they come off lease to replace the A330's. Now, what about the 757? There is just no replacement AFAIK. How does the 737MAX compare to the 757 performance wise? Depending on how profitable (or not) it's specific Latin America routes are, we may just decide to pack it in and leave those markets altogether.