Name User -
Thanks for a factual and thoughtful post. You and I agree on many of your points. I think the A320 will be redundant and replaced with the 737. Undoubtedly there will be some consolidations on the WB.
The area where we differ is on the low end. As I see it, here are the questions:
1. Can ‘gently used’ or new A319s be acquired in sufficient quantities? That is the biggest question on which all the other questions hinge.
2. At what rate will the old A319s be retired, over the next few years to a decade out? If replacement A319s cannot be acquired, will that fleet eventually shrink?
3. How many 76 seat routes will need to be upgauged? This may be through PAX growth, pilot shortages, efficiencies, etc.
4. What deals can AA get on the A220? What is the CASM compared to alternatives? How does it fit in with route structure, range, etc.?
5. What deals can AA get on the Embraer products? CASM? Route Structure? Range?
Stay tuned to this station in 5 or 10 years; see what predictions come to pass.