Originally Posted by
ShyGuy
You said it’s worth leaving even as a max cap 12th yr CA. Your math just doesn’t add up, it does not make financial sense. AS 12th yr pay is 92-93% of Delta on the same equipment. Profit sharing can disappear like a fart in the wind. In the post 9/11 downturn, Delta took a 32.5% hit and for a while AS had higher pay. Those were bad times and some Delta guys took their own life (as some did at other airlines too).
You go straight to those 2015 CAs and don’t acknowledge the loss of pay as 1st, 2nd, 3rd yr FO, assuming you even get to upgrade then (and esp in a base you want). I’m not gonna get into the argument of those rare unicorns who drop their lines and green slip their way through. Those are not the norm. Go with straight guarantee pay x12 months. Do that math as FO for 4 yrs. Now do that again with $266/hr at guarantee x12 months for those same 4 yrs. Its over a million dollars. As FO for the first 4 yrs, skewed with lower 1st yr pay, it’s 500-550k. Not talking unicorns, simply hourly rate x guarantee x 12 months. Now calculate how long it would take you to make up over 500 grand when your current rate today already pays within 93% of Delta. Say an AS 12th yr narrowbody makes 266/hr and the Delta guy is 285/hr. 19/hr difference, x75 hr guarantee (lower at Delta sometimes with ALV) x 12 months, and you get 18 grand. 27 yrs times 18 grand would make the 500k you lost your first 4 yrs. Thats not a good comparison either because that extra 500 grand you earned 27 yrs sfo is worth a lot more today. You could make the argument of Delta widebodies pay, true, but not anytime soon, and esp not behind 4,600 newhires since 2014.
It’s the opportunity cost you are not accounting for. To reiterate, it does not make financial sense for a 12th yr AS max cap CA to start over again. You’d be foolish to give up 12th yr CA at AS to start over at the bottom of a legacy.
(And btw, AS guys hired before 2010 still have a pension. Only about 300 are in the full pension system, the rest are in a rebalanced formula, but still pension nonetheless).
I still disagree. Yes PS can disappear tomorrow but it won't next year or even the next. The ALV of 75 is pretty accurate. You have months that are 72 then you have months that are 85 so I'd say calling it 75 for the year is accurate. Like I said before If you are an East coast guy it makes total sense to bounce even after 12 years...for the west coast guys Id agree with your 5 year assessment. Not trying to brag but I haven't hit 4th year pay yet and I'm going to make over 200k as a FO as a commuter...I usually average 16-18 days a month working. If you live in base you could easily surpass that.
The pension you got me. The opportunity cost is up to the individual...I'd argue it's worth exploring if you want variety of flying in your career...if you don't then probably not.
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