Originally Posted by
ShyGuy
12 yr CA making 266/hr plus 15.5% retirement to start over at the big 3? No way. That doesn't make any financial sense. First year you're gonna make 80-85k at most of those places and 2nd yr about 130k-145k. Compared to giving up 270-300k/yr here, those 2 yrs you'd give up nearly 400 grand (or more). And it'll continue to be a paycut until you upgrade again at the legacy in the base you want and then start to make up on the lost opportunity cost of what you gave up to start over. Not to mention the loss of vacation, QOL, schedules you held, to start over again. Another huge threat is a downturn and being at the bottom of a 14,000 pilot list. As previously stated if you have less than 5 yrs invested here, the decision to leave is easier. But 12 yr CA? No. You'd be hard pressed to find any 12 yr CA at Southwest, jetBlue, or Alaska leaving to start over at the bottom of the big 3.
Besides, leaving AS solely for SEA at Delta is a gamble itself too. Delta gained SEA through the NWA merger and only in the past several years opened more categories there like the 737. One major downturn in the economy, or a realignment in the international strategy, joint venturing out, consolidating to LAX or SLC, anything could happen and the SEA base could shrink or go poof. SEA isn't ATL, and history has shown itself with Delta and its bases at PDX and DFW and soon to be CVG. United was huge in SEA once too. 737s, 75/767, 777s. All gone. Good luck with a SEA gamble.
Sums it up nicely. HeII, I’m here less than 5 yrs and these are the exact things I think about. I think with some of the latest economic indicators, the gamble to leave becomes a tougher decision each day. Something the big 3 are very good at is hiring right up to the first day of furloughs. Not saying that’s happening anytime soon, just that historically the industry runs in 10 year waves and the upswing is showing signs of ending.