Originally Posted by
TransWorld
Name User -
Thanks for a factual and thoughtful post. You and I agree on many of your points. I think the A320 will be redundant and replaced with the 737. Undoubtedly there will be some consolidations on the WB.
The area where we differ is on the low end. As I see it, here are the questions:
1. Can ‘gently used’ or new A319s be acquired in sufficient quantities? That is the biggest question on which all the other questions hinge.
2. At what rate will the old A319s be retired, over the next few years to a decade out? If replacement A319s cannot be acquired, will that fleet eventually shrink?
3. How many 76 seat routes will need to be upgauged? This may be through PAX growth, pilot shortages, efficiencies, etc.
4. What deals can AA get on the A220? What is the CASM compared to alternatives? How does it fit in with route structure, range, etc.?
5. What deals can AA get on the Embraer products? CASM? Route Structure? Range?
Stay tuned to this station in 5 or 10 years; see what predictions come to pass.
Apparently an internal memo just posted, which confirms my suspicion of why we are jettisoning our 767's now:
This week, we signed an agreement to sell all 24 of our Boeing 767s as they leave the American fleet over the next few years. All 24 are being sold to Jetran, with 20 planned to subsequently undergo cargo conversion and be operated by ATSG.
As far as the A319 goes, I really don't know. Buying slightly used over leasing will save $1m/yr per aircraft provided similar terms to Spirit's conversion are realized.
The A320 does a lot of EOW stuff out of the east coast hubs with life rafts and HF radio. Do our 737's have HF? I honestly have no idea. I do beleive I've been on some with life rafts stored on the ceiling.
The C series has a very similar CASM to the A319NEO. Within a few points. The EMB195-E2 is rumored to have a lower CASM within 1,000 mile range of the C series. The C series would be great for a smaller airline operating out of a hub - it would enable it to compete with the larger operators on cost when flying transcons.
So the E2 will certainly have a lower CASM than an older used A319. But CASM is just one component, you must factor in additional program costs of which I am not privy to. Additional reserves, spares, training cycles, CKA, etc. I'm sure there will be some A319's come off lease as other carriers upgauge themselves. The question will be, can they be bought at a decent price point or will they be overpriced due demand and lack of supply? If fuel prices stay low, the improved performance of the NEO will be neutered.