2014-2016 are in a good position, they benefited from the increasing ratio of pilots to airplanes. I'm predicting a 2015 hire will upgrade in 6-7 years. LAX is kind of a wildcard, if you are willing to take the seatlock I expect you would be able to upgrade 12-18 months earlier there then any other base.

However, the last pilot in what I consider the 2008-2010 bubble is still in the range of 800-900 numbers from the most junior captain, with almost 1000 bypassing FOs above them also. Upgrade in the near future will be no lower than ten years, with the strongly likelihood it will increase to 11-12 years.