Any answer given is true for one bid and one bid only. Given current conditions it is likely to continue going down in years in the coming bids, but when the music finally stops it will likely go back to more "normal" levels, and those that make captain in 2019 or 2020 at the bottom will probably end up back in the right seat. That's how this industry works when times are good they are great, but when the economy turns watch out below because the airlines will shrink more than you think is possible.

The cycle has repeated itself at least a half dozen times since Wilbur and Orville first pinned captain wings on themselves over 100 years ago. If you're thinking about making it to the airlines in a couple of years and then wondering how long to make captain . . . don't . . . you'll only drive yourself crazy in ten years thinking about what could have been.

Sorry to play Debbie Downer, but them's the facts. What's happening today is NOT the norm in history, and won't last.