If the plan the company has given SWAPA is followed, we will go into summer with approx 250 less FOs then we currently have, yet summer 2019 is projected to break our previous block/flights per day metrics. In addition HI flying is not currently in the schedule, so those flights will on top of already record breaking plans. This should bring some relief to the overmanned FO side.

My thinking is that if the company truly wanted this level of manning, we would have seen way more upgrades, so that premium flying would be equally rare in either seat. However, what is happening is premium is still happening on the Captain side while the company carries all it's "extra" pilot as FOs. Look at the awards going into the holidays, lots of premium/VPF/JA for Captains, while the FO awards are a totally different picture. This tells us it's still cheaper to award premium and JA rather than carry more Captains and "kill" premium.

So why do we have so many FOs? If the company felt they didn't need all these pilots they could stop running classes at anytime. My guess is that they are taking a long term view and considering the training center capacity, ETOPS training/HI flying, future aircraft deliveries, and a possbile pilot shortage they plan to carry some extra pilots in the short term, but keep the extra pilots as FOs since overmanning costs more then premium.