Furloughs are possible, but absent an age increase (unlikely), I don't see furloughs for most airlines, even in a recession. The financial numbers of furloughing only make sense if an airline plans on not recalling for at least 24 months. It would take a significant economic downturn to trigger furloughs.

Given how lean staffing is, furloughs can also be mitigated or even eliminated by lowering line pilots' block hours. In my mind, that's a much more palatable solution than having to furlough. Unfortunately, there are more than a few $200K+ pilots who live paycheck to paycheck and have to fly 100 credit hours/mo. Gotta pay for that mcmansion, private plane, boat, and stable of half a dozen high end European cars. I'm intentionally avoiding a discussion on the third F.