You all have hinted around what my crystal ball says.
1. It tells me the A319 is almost the price as an A321. At seats for A321 that price is good. At A319 seats that is not as cost effective.
2. Airbus has hinted the A319neo is DOA.
3. The lines for the A319/A320/A321 are booked with A321 orders.
4. Good low hours used A319s are hard to come by.
5. As markets grow and pilot shortage grows, some of the regional 76 seat will grow to mainline 100-130 seat demand. 50 seats will be parked as they are replaced by 76 seats.
6. Airbus is a motivated seller on the A220. They bought it, they want to keep those lines busy, they want to have market share, and they want to prove a good return on their investment. They will keep the price more competitive than the A319.
7. My bet, consistent with the current pay tables, the A220-100 will be Group 1 and A220-300 will be Group 2.
I realize American’s management statements today, and statements of some of the pilots here, are contrary to this. I am looking up over the horizon to see what will happen a few years ahead. Or, for those inclined to chess, I am looking at the chess board, 4 or 5 moves ahead.