Originally Posted by
Bucking Bar
Lower demand results in lower ticket prices. The revenue number is a lot larger than the fuel number and a stronger indicator of where are profits are headed than fuel prices.
Oil and airline ticket prices are both leading indicators and they most often move up, or down, concomitantly.
True, but keep in mind some/most of the revenue we booked during the decline in oil prices was at the higher prices marketing was able push while oil was above $70/bbl. The question is: When was the oil bought to operate the flights?
My thought is we will get a one-half to one percent bump from the oil price decline, putting our profit sharing number around 14%, with a +1.2 to a -.5 range.
What I am hoping is happening for 2019 is we are booking a lot of revenue at higher ticket prices now, and hopefully oil stays below $50/bbl for a good chunk of the year. Heck, I might even consider the H word to a limited extent if I could lock in oil around $40/bbl, maybe even some at $45/bbl.