The cadet programs along with the RTP and flow programs are another method regionals like the wholly owned's use to keep hourly wages low, and sign on bonus in place rather than contractual pay rates. At my WO we still have full classes, and for the amount of equipment we have on line, we may even be fat on pilots. They say we are short captains yet we have guys on reserve that haven't touched a plane in over a month, and as soon as an FO hits his 1000, he is forced to upgrade. We are fat captains, but this is by design as management know's that those coffers are going to deplete fast when the mainline carriers hit peak retirements in addition to the attrition caused by our flow.

One wave has crashed on the beach, but another one is looming on the horizon. The retirement numbers are a reality, how big that next wave will be is dependent on the economy and airline growth plans.