Historical CW would be stay for 20 (and I've told people that in no uncertain terms in years past). However...

At this exact moment in time (due to airline retirement demographics) that would probably cost you a great deal in terms of seniority and ultimate compensation.

Odds are decent that you could bail now, lock in airline seniority, and then participate in guard/reserves to either qualify for a regular AD retirement, or as a consolation prize the reserve retirement at age 60.

It comes down to risk tolerance and how hard you want to chase the best possible airline deal. Upside is having your cake and eating it too. Downside is risk of economic issues, or worst-case medical issues and possibly ending up unable to fly or participate in the reserves to finish the retirement.