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Old 12-31-2018 | 10:07 AM
  #129  
PDTGIMP
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Stock valuation:

(NYSE: AAI), the former parent company of AirTran Airways (AirTran). Based on the average of Southwest Airlines' closing prices for the 20 trading days ending three trading days prior to May 2, 2011, of $11.90, the transaction valued AirTran common stock at approximately $7.57 per share. (press release; SWA investor relations)

Today's closing price, last day of 2018, for Alaska Air Group (ALK: NYSE): $60.33

That is quite a premium. Now, if ALK was trading at a few times earnings and on Jim Cramer's "Wall of Shame" as AAI was in 2010....or Hawaiian, etc....I agree.

All of these stocks have valuations too high....and Spirit is up 20% this year.

IF in the middle of a recession and these stocks trade for single digit multiples...maybe we make a bid...then there is DOJ anti trust variables....a risk for a carrier with a large domestic presence...unknown what they will do (even in a Republican Administration) ((DOJ tried to block Time Warner/AT&T under Trump))...SWA doesn't like paying break up fees....AAI concentrated in Atlanta....we didn't serve ATL at all, so little anti-trust overlap, depsite build up in MKE and BWI...
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