Originally Posted by
V12Merlin
These numbers represent “zero” growth. Factor in another 2-4% for growth per year and the numbers start looking even better. Should be good times ahead for about 10 years or so, barring any sort of black swan type event.
Just my $.02 worth.
What about fleet consolidation? A recession? I bet Delta/American are 1k-2k pilots less each as the MD-80/E190/A330/757/767/you name it here/ is retired with a 737/A320 replacement. Less reserves, CKA, overlap.
Southwest has the same number of airplanes as delta and 5,000 less pilots. It's no secret that management sees the value in consolidating fleet types to reduce staffing.
I don't doubt that the next decade will be the best in awhile for movement, but it won't be a miracle.