Originally Posted by
planesense
So all the captains would eventually move on to the majors or retire, then all the line-holding FO's would upgrade to captain, and all the FO's on reserve would just stay there, simply because there's no one behind them? Sorry, this is just highly illogical. The pipeline has to keep moving regardless of how many FO's get hired behind you.
I think y'all are arguing past one another because of an impossible hypothetical that makes the whole thought exercise irrelevant.
In an event where YX didn't hire another FO, the airline would only allow upgrades to the point where the ratio of CAs to FOs was where the airline wanted it. At the bottom of the totem pole, you would stay there.
Now, more to the point in the real world, the training delay is not really that big a deal as it pertains to your seniority. I'm also on the delay, and they've continued hiring and there are close to 100 people below me on the seniority list now as of the December 2018 list posted on Comply. From February to April (or whenever they're resuming classes), I will progress toward an upgrade due to upgrades and retirements of those ahead of me, but my ability to hold a line as an FO will not improve until they start hiring people in behind me to backfill those reserve slots.
The reason they're doing this delay to begin with is to right-size what is an oversized FO group. By putting the pause on the flow of new hires into the FO side, they allow that group to right-size itself through upgrades and attrition. The CA side of things will continue unabated due to attrition and retirements, creating the movement to right-size the FO group.
TL;DR: You will move up the list as a function of total pilots, but not as a percentage, progressing toward upgrade but not lineholder.