Originally Posted by
Otterbox
You’re welcome to double check the math...last early Jan 2016 hire is about 164 away from flow...
164/60 =
164/72 =
It’s actually surprising how many PDT pilots don’t know how long they have to flow using the math. They just take the 5 year flow the recruiters told them and subtract how long they’ve been on property and assume what’s left is how long they have to leave.
So number 90 just flowed right? It seems to me you are forgetting that in your math?
The first '15 is 141.
141-90=51
51/72=.7
So 8 months from now, which is Aug 2019, from Jan 15= 4y 8m.
Mid 15' is the best at 159
159-90=69
69/72= .95
Just June '15 being the optimal at 4y 6 m.
The first '16 hire is 237
237-90=147
147/72=2
2 years form now being Jan 2021. Exactly 5 years to flow (hence the flow going back up comment I made)
But all of that is strictly from 6/m flow. There is outside attrition, which does reduce the higher you get as many are too close to flowing to get their apps out there, and since we already ruled out the retirements in that "90" number. It still happens, and can push you a month or so forward.
Yea, for the first 1-3 years, the ones up top were unknown, might flow, might not. But that is pretty set in stone now, if you haven't gone yet, you aren't going to.
But it read to me like you were saying there are 160 pilots who have been here for 10 years and are still 2 1/4 away from flowing? That is greatly incorrect. Maybe I was reading you post wrong. Like I said, 2013s have flowed already, they haven't been here 10 years yet, nor will they.