Originally Posted by
Flyinguy
So number 90 just flowed right? It seems to me you are forgetting that in your math?
The first '15 is 141.
141-90=51
51/72=.7
So 8 months from now, which is Aug 2019, from Jan 15= 4y 8m.
Mid 15' is the best at 159
159-90=69
69/72= .95
Just June '15 being the optimal at 4y 6 m.
The first '16 hire is 237
237-90=147
147/72=2
2 years form now being Jan 2021. Exactly 5 years to flow (hence the flow going back up comment I made)
But all of that is strictly from 6/m flow. There is outside attrition, which does reduce the higher you get as many are too close to flowing to get their apps out there, and since we already ruled out the retirements in that "90" number. It still happens, and can push you a month or so forward.
Yea, for the first 1-3 years, the ones up top were unknown, might flow, might not. But that is pretty set in stone now, if you haven't gone yet, you aren't going to.
But it read to me like you were saying there are 160 pilots who have been here for 10 years and are still 2 1/4 away from flowing? That is greatly incorrect. Maybe I was reading you post wrong. Like I said, 2013s have flowed already, they haven't been here 10 years yet, nor will they.
My math was in response to the off the wall statement by that NHs can expect to not be on property for more than a few years at PDT Not only are there plenty of folks on property past the 3 year mark at PDT, the last of them still has over two years to flow.
I used #81 since since Jan/Feb flows have been announced but haven’t left yet and picked the last person hired whose been on property greater than three years (Jan 4 2016 @# 244). I think we’re on the same page, just used different snapshots/starting points for our #s. It would be swell if the union actually kept track of flow dates, or the company published the flow tracker the CPs have had access to in the past, but alas here we are.
Flow worked out great for the 2015 hires.
For new hires considering PDT, flow is now approximately 10 years and should be lowest on their list of considerations when deciding whether or not to come to PDT vs going to another airline.