Originally Posted by
dera
approx. 50% attrition outside flow last year. New hire is ~2100 slots from flow. Run the numbers, they're not far off. I said marginally. Any changes and it might jump to 7, but with the hiring increasing at all legacies, I bet it only gets better.
The higher up you are on the seniority list you are, the more of that 50% attrition will be behind you and not effect your flow. I also suspect the math you're using assumes the flow rate will remain the same as it is now (the requirements actually decrease significantly after the protected pilots are gone after this year).
You still have to get through a huge amount of new hires in late '16 and all of '17. Those earlier guys on that wave will have a sub 6 year flow... some very few might have sub 4. After those earlier guys, the number shoot up. By the time you get to '18 hires, you have to assume that all the predicted attrition is senior to them to be sub 6 years and it's worse after that.