Originally Posted by
highfarfast
The higher up you are on the seniority list you are, the more of that 50% attrition will be behind you and not effect your flow. I also suspect the math you're using assumes the flow rate will remain the same as it is now (the requirements actually decrease significantly after the protected pilots are gone after this year).
You still have to get through a huge amount of new hires in late '16 and all of '17. Those earlier guys on that wave will have a sub 6 year flow... some very few might have sub 4. After those earlier guys, the number shoot up. By the time you get to '18 hires, you have to assume that all the predicted attrition is senior to them to be sub 6 years and it's worse after that.
Damn it, come on, use your brain.
If I used the numbers they flow today, it would be a 6 year flow for everyone with ZERO outside attrition. That's obviously not the case.
I told you the number a new hire is from flow today (2100ish).
Add a linear ratio of outside attrition going from 100% to 0%
Use 20 as monthly flow number (which it will be on average).
And you see just under 6 years as the result.
Optimistic - maybe. But the numbers do support it.
I personally think it'll be way less than that, there will be way more outside attrition than currently, but I don't want to open that can of worms here.