Originally Posted by dera

Damn it, come on, use your brain.

If I used the numbers they flow today, it would be a 6 year flow for everyone with ZERO outside attrition. That's obviously not the case.

I told you the number a new hire is from flow today (2100ish).
Add a linear ratio of outside attrition going from 100% to 0%
Use 20 as monthly flow number (which it will be on average).
And you see just under 6 years as the result.
Optimistic - maybe. But the numbers do support it.
I personally think it'll be way less than that, there will be way more outside attrition than currently, but I don't want to open that can of worms here.