Originally Posted by
BigZ
That was my guesstimate until I actually looked at the attrition numbers. Of that number you are talking about 50+% left year one and 25% left year two. Trickle after that. It is definitely not "200 year 1, 0 last year, so let's say an average of 100 a year". This might change with the current pilot group having less seniority, making the move easier, but we'll see about that next year.
With the current attrition and flow numbers your class will flow in a bit over 7 years. If it happens earlier, I'll be happy.
I added a bit of salt based on a guess that attrition will increase during those 6-7 years. Which is very realistic I'd say, given the hiring needs across all majors.
If I flow in 7 years, I'm very happy. I'll still have ~25 years at American.