Originally Posted by
afterburn81
As one pilot to another pilot, you’ve got to get out of the mentality of overpromising. People see this statement and think, hey this guy knows something and 3 years isn’t bad.
For one, the number you threw out there is very appealing but based on absolutely nothing other than wishful thinking.
Facts - there are around 8 more CRJs that need to be put on line. Will need 25-30 more captains to fly them. However, 50 CR7 captains just finished up the AMR flying and have never flown from the right seat. So those slots are basically spoken for. Not to mention 50 FOs that just finished the AMR flying that seniorities range from 13 years to 25 years. All of which will be bidding for any open captain position in order to maintain their pay rates.
Currently there are no upgrade classes. System bids for the next few months will yield only backfilling of vacancies. At 12 years of seniority I personally could not hold left seat anywhere within the company. There are 50+ guys more senior to me that will need to upgrade before me. From what I hear, at best, XJT hires 3-5 per month and I have recently spoken to a few different instructors that can say not all of those make it through training.
Long story short, the company cannot upgrade if they don’t get FOs. A LOT of FOs (since more FOs attrit than CAs). Close to 100 guys were displaced to FO on the ASA side and maintain their CA pay so long as their bid always includes all CA positions before FO positions.
Do the math yourself. Upgrades at 3 years? Never again at XJT. Can’t happen unless a flow forces the top to come off.
The only thing I honestly see could happen (just opinion), exchanging 145s for 175s. So a new hire might see a 175 sooner than later. Which may appeal to more and help growth and maybe get the ball rolling in the right direction.
The issue is not a lack of airplanes. There are still -145's parked that need crews. As you point out the company only attracts maybe 3-4 per class, though I've heard these numbers may already be increasing. Still, not enough to cover attrition.
The issue is making the company attractive to new hires, priming the pump so to speak. In some ways, I already see this. I've had pilots PM me about XJT, which hasn't happened in a while. A change to CPP and more bonus money would probably help quite a bit. Once that happens, if XJT can become that airline again that new pilots talk about, I do think the upgrade times will come down very quickly. Three-year upgrades? Maybe, maybe not. But it won't be 12-year upgrades and the fall in upgrade times won't be linear.