Originally Posted by mketch11

My crystal ball says attrition will decrease in the next few years at Envoy. Captains with 12+ years 121 and a ton of PIC time will be much more likely to leave than the 5 year flow who is barely competitive at a major. Also, they will be much less likely to leave for an LCC knowing American is right around the corner. Not sure why so many people think that majors are going to start hiring everyone with a pulse any day now. The mass retirements at American won’t be much of a factor for street hires anyway considering they get a large portion of new hires from flow, and the majors are much more likely to consolidate fleet types etc than to triple hiring. Folks on here keep claiming that the 9 year flow for a new will really be less than 6. Caution to potential applicants, this magical 30% decrease is more wishful thinking than anything else. The actual numbers are much less. My flow time according to Alpa at hire was 5.5 years. Now after over two years it is 5.3. Even if you disregard the temporary increase of flow from 25 to 29 a month, that comes out to a 3% decrease in flow due to attrition. The effects of attrition decrease as one moves up the list, so you could overestimate again and say that it would double by the time you flow bringing you to around a 6% decrease in flow. If you start at 9 years that brings you to around 8.5 years to flow. These estimates are at least loosely based on actual numbers and contractual requirements. If you want to base things on your own expectations of the company giving away more flow or the majors going crazy hiring low time pilots then be my guest, but just know what risk you are taking assuming such things.