Originally Posted by
dera
I added a bit of salt based on a guess that attrition will increase during those 6-7 years. Which is very realistic I'd say, given the hiring needs across all majors.
If I flow in 7 years, I'm very happy. I'll still have ~25 years at American.
Absolutely a fantasy born of hope rather than realism. It is most likely that we will not go 6 years without another recession. The economy just doesn't do that very often. So, even though retirements will continue, there is no guarantee that American will need to replace them. There is also no guarantee that American will remain at its current level of flying. Delta, Southwest, United, Spirit, Frontier and Alaska are all growing. They are upgrading their aircraft and adding in flight services. Mean while, on AA, you may or may not have entertainment and you are lucky if the wifi works. Everything is unpredictable and customers do not like unpredictable. But I know, when I get on any of the airlines I mentioned above, exactly what I will get. As far as I can tell, American is as likely to go the way of Eastern as it is to grow over the next 6 years. Don't assume the flow will stick around.
What my wondering rambling is trying to say is that hiring through out aviation may slow or stop in the coming years and the flow to American may be nonexistent during that same time. Get up and out now before the boom busts. This is exactly like Pre-911. It took 16 years to recover from that. If you aren't at a major before the next bust, you may not ever get there.