Originally Posted by
afterburn81
I'm sorry but, does this kind of give anyone a feeling of unease? I'm an ASA guy, fairly new, but I got a little seniority. Obviously if they are cutting flights then eventually they will start trimming the fat around the pilot groups as well as other employees. You always think, "someone's got to do the flying. People just have to fly." But I guess in this situation they are just cutting people off and leaving them without the option of flying. Then again, the average passenger was never really very loyal to the airlines themselves so screw em. Is it something to be worried about when it comes to job security or am I just over reacting?
The answer to this is a somewhat lengthy macro economic discussion but here goes. After the major airline scope clauses survived 9/11 and all the bankruptcies the role and therefore size of the regional sector was more than likly forever fixed to an upper gage or seat level. (roughly 70 seats) If the scope clauses were ever to be circumvented it would have been then. Since the only way to increase aggregate passenger count of the National Airspace System is to increase seat count on existing flight frequency, (number of flights the system can handle is basically fixed and all the fancy free flight and GPS direct in the world can't get around the fact that at some point we all have to get in a line three miles behind each other a land on fixed number of runways) the utility of the RJ will continue to wain as passenger demand increases. (not to mention the horrendous seat mile efficiency made worst by $100 oil) This is evidenced by the fact that no one has built a 50 seater in almost 3 years and the feds are considering minimum seat counts for aircraft arriving in the most congested locales. The demand is now for a 100 seat jet, a segment which is largely owned by major airline pilots. These facts coupled with the fee for departure, race to the bottom scenario means that unless regionals can find something else to do with their aircraft, they will be relegated to ruthlessly compete for a larger piece of an ever-shrinking pie. My guess is this will result in the sector returning to its mid 90's level with a few large players doing the lift. Someone has to fly to Valdosta, GA, the question is: who will it be in 5-10 years?
Of course one more aerial visit by our camel loving friends would delay all this a decade or so.