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Old 02-06-2019, 09:11 AM
  #21  
rickair7777
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Originally Posted by JayMahon View Post
I'm LOOKING for dark clouds. So, some pilots get stuck with an operator that pays peanuts to fly the big boys. Sounds like a bad deal.

How does it happen?
Historically there have ALWAYS been far more qualified professional pilots than top jobs. Essentially four tiers in the airlines, not counting fractionals...

Regional: If you get stuck or decide to stay, you can can make an adequate living by white collar profession standards. In the olds days that was $100K, today it's $150K+, but you'll have to put in your time, ten+ years. There are downsides to the regional industry, they are subcontractors and the contracts can dry up on a whim. Schedules usually suck for all but the most senior (nature of the beast, six legs/day, with lots of unpaid time cooling your heels between flights). Bases close, and companies close. Don't need a degree.

LCC: More money and stability than regionals. Maybe better schedules, maybe not. Eventually you will make more money than your average white-collar peers (not counting doctors, law firm partners, etc).

ACMI/Heavy Cargo: Better money than regionals, often faster money than LCC's. Downside is schedules... typical three on, two off. That's weeks. You'll notice your kids have gotten bigger when you return from a trip. Trips are long-haul, so lots of circadian disruption. Also *some* of these have bad reps for MX (some have good reps, just not as consistent as 121 pax). May offer perks like home basing, so you can live where you want without worrying about a commute. Pay is variable, some small-town mom-and-pop outfits may pay less than regionals, but the folks who work there typically have their reasons. Many will pay better than what your your average white-collar peers make (not counting doctors, law firm partners, etc).

Big Six (DL/UA/AA/SWA/FDX/UPS): They will get you to $200K real quick. Top may be as high as $900K in extreme cases. FO's make $200-300K+, most CA's $350-500K. Great schedules in general, or at least flexibility (compared to the rest of the industry). Perks like 16% 401k direct contribution, a couple still have DB retirements. Of course everybody wants to work at one of these. Hawaiian and Alaska are legacies, but have geographic niches, good places to work, but somewhere between LCC and big six.

Originally Posted by JayMahon View Post
What keeps the pilot there instead of taking his experience elsewhere? Seniority? Lack of desire to fly in overseas environments that pay well for this level of experience?
Two things...

Seniority: If you get 8-10 years into a regional, it will be a pay and QOL cut initially (plus risk on probation year). Referred to as "Golden Handcuffs". Even worse as ACMI/LCC. Also geographic uncertaintity... might get assigned to a plane which is based only on the other side of the country, typically with a two-year seat-lock. Hard for a family man, even with a big payoff downrange, you can never replace those years with your kids.

Big Six preferences: They seem to prefer folks who are motivated and moving along. A pilot who has plateaued as a regional CA, or an FO or even CA at LCC may get passed over in favor of younger folks who are still in ladder climbing mode. Also everybody wants to work here, so they can be picky... you'll hear the term "brass ring". You can predict if someone will NOT get called, based on their background (criminal issues, training busts, employment issues, "presentability". But if you have ten guys who have the right (civilian) background, maybe three will get called and it's hard to figure out which three it's going to be. Hence the lottery/brass ring analogies. It can even be hard to get a call from a LCC. These number should improve temporarily between now and about 2025, then start trending back to normal. Assuming good pilot record, "whole person" credentials also weigh heavily.


Originally Posted by JayMahon View Post
Give me some examples to deflate the optimism. That's SPECIFICALLY why I posted. I've read though these forums voraciously over the past few weeks collecting information. I'm reaching out to fill in the gaps and check the conclusions I've come to.
There thousands of RJ CA's who cannot even get called by an LCC. Typically nothing wrong with them, but they've been stuck on one type for years due to circumstances beyond anyone's control and so are considered "stagnant". They watch their FO's get called by LCCs, and occasionally legacies. They can mitigate their circumstances by going full-court press on networking, job fairs, and applications. But they may need a recent training even which they just can't get. Also a family man (or woman) just doesn't have the time to jump through all those hoops.

There are also folks who got a blackmark along the way, who would otherwise have progressed. You can 100% avoid DUI's but sometimes employment or training issues are hard to avoid (you should make every effort of course...)
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