Originally Posted by
symbian simian
Upgrade times are a shot in the dark. I always calculated upgrade times based on no-growth, and then age 65 happened. For an upgrade at NK you are looking at a pilot group that is about 80% younger than you, so for upgrade look at doubling in size or about 5 years at 15% growth, but that is based on the order coming in and all the deliveries happening. For SWA there are more retirements but less growth, and my best guess would be 10 years. If nothing much changes contract wise you still would easily out-earn at SWA compared to NK IMO.
I disagree. WN has peaked and is fighting extreme headwinds on CASM. If NK continues to improve as an airline and as the pricing difference becomes more widely known I see NK growing to 300-500+. NK will grow more as a percentage than WN can anymore. Throw in an age 67 or 'as able' and you could really shoot yourself in the foot at WN if you're betting on retirements. Not to mention the 73 sucks.