Well looking at the seniority list, upgrade in 2020 is either going to be 9 years or move, or 6 years or less. Take a look at how many were hired in 2012 & 2013...not many.

The big question is will those hired in 08-11 be interested in bidding LAX, or are they so close to holding the left seat in the base they want or happily bypassing already that they bypass LAX. Supposedly around 70 current Captains live within driving distance of LAX, and probably 2 bids will be enough for them to bid in. After that, we will see how interested FOs are in upgrading in LAX and taking the seat lock.