This is a 2006-2008 redux with a few differences.
Anyone remember Mesa/go! entering Hawaii market? They brought 4 CRJ's and literally destroyed the inter island market. Hawaiian not only matched their fares, but accepted those fares and that's all they charged even if go! was full. In other words, Hawaiian was also complicit in Aloha's demise. And kama'aina couldn't care less. They all voted with their wallets.
Hawaiian was better positioned to withstand go! because they were flying heavies to the West Coast and therefore only roughly 20% of their lift capacity was inter island. When Aloha folded, Hawaiian got a virtual monopoly. Sorry, but WP or go! just couldn't compete or compare.
Since then, Hawaiian has done some fantastic things. It expanded far beyond just doing the West Coast flights, and I believe that is what will carry Hawaiian going forward.
Personally, I don't think Southwest even realizes what a gold mine inter island market is. Once we start serving it, I wouldn't be surprised if we significantly ramp up our presence there.
I know people wonder about CFM engines and how well they handle turns. Just as a point of reference, we do 30 minute turns in the -700 at smaller airports with 143 seats. Our -800's and MAX 8's are 175 seats, so naturally the turn times would have to be longer. Quite frankly, it wouldn't surprise me if we added -700's to ETOPS and do off-hours with it with the intent of producing revenue while positioning aircraft to/from Hawaii and rotate them for maintenance at the same time. One thing I know about our bean counters, they know how to make money in this business.
I think Hawaiian has done fantastic job in recent years. I do think we're gonna put a hurting on you guys inter island especially once it's all spooled up. Having said that, I think Hawaiian has a fantastic product and I think they'll do well if they keep expanding their longhaul markets. That was where Aloha made another huge mistake (among many) and is out of business. Hawaiian has learned from that experience, so I think you guys will be OK.
Interisland market should be a two-airline system.. kinda like how it was when Aloha was still around. Mesa came in and disrupted it. I think Hawaiian has learned a valuable lesson and broadened their horizons.
It's gonna be nice to see all this unfold, but I wouldn't quite discount Hawaiian unless your current management starts to significantly stray from Dunkerley's vision.