Originally Posted by
Longhornmaniac8
I have no interest in getting involved in this **** storm, but you say XJT has better prospects right now than YX in terms of getting time and moving on.
Aren't their (XJT) upgrade times like 6 years right now? I don't remotely doubt they will come down IF they can get more staffing for their new planes, but it seems exceedingly unlikely they'll drop below 3-4 years in the short-medium term. That said, I don't know a whole lot about what the roster looks like at XJT (just what I've gleaned from on here).
That is a pretty crappy prospect for a new hire, when they could go just about anywhere else and be looking at an LCC/major job in that time.
I actually don't have a dog in this particular fight other than a philosophical one. But in general terms, no I think you are wrong, simply from basic queuing theory.
Right now XJT has inadequate crew to staff their existing jets and flying and they are about to get MORE jets and MORE flying.
A newbie at XJT is therefore likely to spend relatively little time on reserve and then be flying his or her butt off shortly after completing IOE. That is NOT the case at a considerable number of other regionals. Newbie's at many regional's ARE in reserve for prolonged periods of time and worse yet get very little flying while on reserve, little enough in many cases that they have trouble making consolidation time within the prescribed limits in some cases.
On another thread an Endeavor FO was describing his first year. Economically he did well, at least by Regional standards, but his total logged hours for the whole year was 200, albeit some of that training delays.
The point is that before you can even LEGALLY upgrade you need 1000 hours. The issue is how quick can you get those hours as well as how much seniority you need to upgrade.
We are heading into a time of unparalleled mandatory retirements at the majors with simultaneous pilot shortages in the military. And you are correct that ULCCs and ACMI are taking people - even with no PIC at all.
There is going to be movement in all the regional's because of this hiring wave, but I would maintain that for the newbie TODAY the smartest thing they can do is hire on where they are going to really fly you, GET YOUR HOURS, and move on. If you can live in base and fly for XJT, I would certainly prefer it over places that have better contracts and better pay (like Endeavor of Republic) but are going to get you to the majors several years later. Short term pain for long term gain. It's as simple as that.