Originally Posted by Longhornmaniac8

I agree with your premise 100%, I guess we just fundamentally see things a bit differently. Moreover, I also have no dog in the fight, and unlike others in this thread, I certainly don't actively relish in seeing other pilot groups struggle through tough times. Sadly, there's a lot of vitriol coming from both sides here and elsewhere.

You are absolutely correct about the long reserve times and how that can relate to the 1000 hours. In some cases, I think that can absolutely move the needle one way or another. Even at airlines like 9E which are purported to have reserve times of close to a year, let's say flying only 20 hours a month on reserve, that's still 240 hours. Year two you hold a line, and you only need to average about 65 hours flight time per month to get your 1000. For someone motivated to do so for an available upgrade, that's not too difficult.

Point being, that's a fairly extreme example, but flying 1000 hours is still totally doable in a 2 year upgrade regime. At my airline (YX) reserve times are 2-4 months, and from what I've been able to gather, you're flying more like 30-40 hours per month. If you incorporate the training delay, which sadly for me will finish at right around 6 months (though others in my class will finish at 5, and a new hire now will have a significantly reduced delay), you're looking at 8-10 months of no flying + reserve. I still expect to be able get my 1000 hours by the time I go for upgrade (which is currently 23 months from DOH to award and 26 months to beginning of class). That requires the same ~65 hours per month for a lineholder. Obviously that gets shifted forward/fewer monthly hours required if you shorten the training profile as someone starting training now will experience.

Thankfully for our friends at XJ, it sounds like upgrades are farther along in their dropping than I realized. If they can get to the magic 2 year mark, which seems plenty doable given the numbers provided upthread, it makes them a perfectly good option.

I maintain my belief that certain regionals are more stable than others and those would be more likely to survive the next round of consolidation. That could be brought on by a recession or other industry forces. Six months ago, I would've not put XJ in that group and actively steered some people away from it. Now, I just told one of my friends to apply there since things definitely seem to be trending up. I don't think I would put them in the same tier of stability as OO, YX, or Envoy/Endeavor, and of course in this industry nothing is 100% stable (far from it). But if you asked me which regionals are most vulnerable from a financial/operational perspective, I would probably no longer put XJ in that group. That's great news for the many fine people there, and I wish them nothing but the best.

It remains to be seen if XJ can get their staffing up to where it needs to be. You're certainly correct that you can do as much flying there as you want, but I don't think that would manifest itself into quicker career progression vis-a-vis, say, OO or YX, even once XJ's upgrade time falls to about 2 years. All three offer in the ballpark of 2 year upgrades, and a motivated pilot shouldn't have any issue with meeting the 1000/2500 hours (exceptions for those coming in with an R-ATP) at any of the three as things are right now.

Going to XJ is a bit of a high risk, high reward prospect right now. You can hold a line quickly and if things do continue upward, could find yourself in a great spot to fly a lot, upgrade at a reasonable time, and, as you say, get in, get your time, and get out.

On the flip side, if they're not able to sustain the net hiring numbers they need, their operational metrics will continue to be poor, leaving them more vulnerable to consolidation, United ownership or not. Certainly a common theme is that United will happily play its regionals off of one another. While I definitely feel better about XJ after getting out from under OO, I'm still somewhat wary of their place in the regional world in a macro sense. I hope they can prove me wrong.