Originally Posted by
rickair7777
Correlation is not necessarily causation. After 5-7K many of the most motivated are gone so the folks left, on average, are not trying as hard, or at all. After 10K, they are not trying at all or have some background showstopper.
THIS^^^^
As you repeatedly filter the cohort for hirability the ones left behind are disproportionately the ones that were ALWAYS least likely to be hired due to a VARIETY of factors including geographical preferences, no four year degree, discomfort with actively campaigning to get to the next level, prior training failures, prior DUIs or other legal problems, divorce/child custody issues, unwillingness or inability to take the monetary or seniority/scheduling hit to restart at year one, being super cautious and knowing that a 12 year regional captain is a lot more furlough-proof than a first or second year major FO, or maybe just because of a profound hatred of being on reserve.
Age and flying hours become highly correlated with people hanging around a regional for any or all of these reasons - and probably others I haven’t thought of - but in no real way are those two factors (age and flying hours) the CAUSE of those people being stuck there.