Originally Posted by
rickair7777
That's a good trend, but not a guarantee of safety.
The Concorde was the safest airline type then world had ever seen. In a few seconds it went from the safest type in history to the most dangerous. Turns out it had systemic problems all along, just took time for odds to catch up to them.
Processes and systems are what guarantee safety over the long term, not yesterday's performance. I've lived through a few regional cycles, and we entering another cycle of rapid attrition, hiring, and upgrade at the regionals... there is no way that will not be a factor. The only mitigation is that there's probably not going to be a lot of regional growth (mature scope).
I can not agree more.
If statistics is of any help (1 crash over 10 years in US), knock the wood and hope it will never happen, but statistics says it will happen for sure (probably sooner as it has not for 10 years)