Listen to what you are saying. If you drove home buzzed without wearing your seatbelt 40 million times, that would be safe. No matter how many times or how little it was done, it wasn’t safe. The probability of it happening is low. But being safe isn’t about probabilities. You operate safely or you don’t. A flight doesn’t start with you asking yourself, what are statistics I’ll make it without incident? It’s 1 in 40 million, therefore my flight will be safe. That’s backwards.

When people say safety isn’t outcome based, it’s boiling it down to its essence. It’s to say that safety isn’t just a yes/no issue. It’s more than just binary. Or in other words, it’s not just, did we crash or not? That would be outcome based. Having a safe flight isn’t just about having an accident or not. You guys are getting hung up on sample size in the hypothetical to illustrate the point. Sure, statistics is an easy way to quantify safety but defining safety isn’t a discussion about statistics.