Originally Posted by Bluedriver

Good advice and analysis. When the A220 fully/mostly replaces the E90 I don't see the plug remaining in the 70-80% range. I believe the A220 will go more senior. It's pay rate is much closer to A320 pay and there are other characteristics that make the plane more desirable than the E90.

So overall I say it goes more senior. With the loss of 75% of OE trips, may not see as many senior bypassers in the future. Also, the E90 is a dying fleet, so I believe even less dudes are interested into upgrading onto it right now, which makes it stay/go so junior.

Couple that with few retirements, as the seniority list gets larger and larger, but the aircraft delivery schedule remains a constant 13-15 hulls a year, the airlines actual hull growth rate as a PERCENTAGE mathematically results in a lower growth rate each year. In others words, as a percentage, JB is constantly slowing it's hull growth rate. That will also result in slower seniority progression with each passing year if the delivery schedule remains a fixed 13-15.

As long as they continue to run upgrades onto the E90 during the transition, you will see some token really low longevity upgrades. After the conversion to the A220 is complete I would expect most upgrades will be 7+ years.

My guess.