In anticipation of age 65 passing I've been asking the over-55-year-old captains I've been flying with what their intentions are. I've flown with maybe 15 or so over the last six months. While purely unscientific, almost all have expressed no intention of staying in the job until 65. Most indicated they would either still retire at 60, or by 62 1/2, and that it depended on the GAT rate and the effects on their retirement. Several stated they still fully plan to retire before 60. I've flown with only two that indicated they intended to try to stay until 65.

I get the sense that some, maybe roughly half, will initially stay. They will find it hard to give up the paycheck. But I think, based on my conversations, that there's a psychological point that'll be crossed at 60. They've looked forward to 60 with whatever emotions for many years as "the goal". Once over it, knowing they can retire, the first time, or second time, or perhaps the third time they get hung up in a Northeast storm (like this weekend), miss a commute home, or whatever else bugs them about the job, they'll put in their papers. They'll compare their paycheck to what they would receive in retirement and decide the additional money isn't worth it. I also wonder how many additional medical outs there will be.

I'm not convinced that hiring will slow all that much and I don't think a large amount of pilots, perhaps not more than 1 in 5, will continue all the way to 65.

Have anyone else talked directly with these guys and gotten a sense of their desire to stay or their intentions?