Aviation is a leading economic indicator. With the exception of the 250 hour wonders and those who are in the current climate of rapid progression into their careers, most have been through multiple cycles, downturns, furloughs, closures, downsizings, etc, and know what it's like. It will happen again.

When the economy takes a significant downturn (and it will in the not too distant future), there will be large scale furloughs. Flight departments will close. Flight schools will scale back. People will drop out of aviation, as always happens. Those in the lower seniority will be looking for work, and won't find it.

We're overdue. Expect it soon.