Originally Posted by
rickair7777
I think the military flow will slow and reach a stable steady state soon.
Right now there is a pool of mil pilots who previously passed on airline opportunities, and are now signing up. When that pool is exhausted (soon), the military only takes in X number of new pilots per year. Those pilots will get out only at specific career gates, and most will go to airlines at the point or not at all. That flow and the gates will remain steady state unless the military makes a big structural change (could happen, for any of several reasons).
I'm one of them and I agree with that assessment. The Army is already increasing its pilot active duty service obligation for flight school to be closer to the Air Force's. The RTP is a new phenomenon and it exploded due to a lot of guys thinking they had no options but to stay for the retirement realizing they can actually use their skills outside without spending thousands out of pocket. Most of these guys have families so the cost was the prohibitive factor. Now, most of them have now made the jump, or are in the process, so it will be slowing down. I'm one of the back enders. I still have another assignment to go before I can leave, and nearly all of the guys that haven't already jumped are staying until retirement in my unit.