I think you need to get off the "lazy" kick and look around here. Every question you have asked has been answered here in triplicate.

You want a real-world assessment of what things are now? Don't look at trends until you're there. If you would have told me three years ago that people would be getting hired at 300 total I'd laugh at you. Back then nobody could get a job with less than 1500. It could very easily go back to that.

There is no pilot shortage. If airlines were willing to raise their pay rather than lowering their standards this wouldn't be an issue. Sadly it's easier to pay less and have less experience in the right seat than it is to pay more and have more qualified applicants. The reason there is a shortage is because people don't want the job for the pay and other long-term costs.