Originally Posted by
goinaround
World air cargo traffic is forecast to grow 4.2 percent per year in the next 20 years. In terms of RTK growth, air freight, including express traffic, is projected to grow at a rate of 4.3 percent per year while airmail will grow at a slower pace, averaging 2 percent annual growth through 2037. Overall, world air cargo traffic will more than double in the next 20 years, expanding from 256 billion RTKs in 2017 to 584 billion RTKs in 2037.
https://file.veryzhun.com/buckets/ca...732a88cd9d.pdf
I don’t disagree with the article you have posted. It is probably correct from a strategic viewpoint. What you may have failed to consider is the double edged sword of a recent good world economy. Competition in the ACMI segment has been created in the expanding market. When there is a downturn the work will go to the lowest cost provider
What I see from the working man perspective is, China is financing aircraft deals for their organically grown lift. We have competition for our Turkish contract from a company that didn’t exist a few years ago. Airbridge and other unsafe operators are getting safer and will be eventually moving their 800’s into position to compete very favorably on routes currently flown by Atlas, Kalitta, etc. This is just the tip of the iceberg as far as competition.